The Negative Foods Predictions & Wishes for 2022

The 2022 New Year (37th) Edition of the Negative Foods Newsletter

My predictions for 2022:

Carbon Labelling Goes Mainstream & Snowballs. In 2021, we saw carbon labels from early adopters such as Oatly, Just Salad and Qorn, and demonstration scale applications, such as the cafeteria food at COP26. Look for 2022 to be the year when carbon labeling goes mainstream, lifted by the leadership of Unilever. Unilever’s Marc Engel, its global head of supply chain, said this summer that ‘We intend to roll out carbon labels on our entire product range over the next two to five years and believe it will transform not only the actions of consumers, but of the thousands of businesses in our supply chain as well.” The ripple effect of this strategy will be substantial, as Unilever’s 75,000 products are consumed by 2.5 billion humans every day, in nearly 200 countries, with U.S. brands as ubiquitous as Dove, Hellman’s, Breyers, Lipton, Ben & Jerry’s and Seventh Generation. I predict that progressive consumers will be attracted to Unilever’s carbon labeling initiatives, which will inspire copycat strategies from competitors, many of whom will be sourcing from the same supply chains. Years from now, I expect we’ll look back at 2022 as the year consumer demand began rising for Negative Foods based on carbon labels.

Standardization from Europe. Today, the lack of standards means that sustainability and carbon footprint claims on food products are a mess. European Union leadership in 2022 will help establish formats for carbon claims across the world.

Certified Products. In 2022 we’ll see the continued rise of Regenerative Organic Certification (“ROC“), and we’ll see more products labeled to inform consumers of carbon neutrality or climate neutrality.

Paying Farmers to Sequester Carbon. As more companies, including non-food companies, take steps to become carbon neutral, we will see more investments in programs that sequester carbon on farms and in land use. Indigo sells credits to “buyers, such as JPMorgan Chase, Shopify and North Face that are looking to counteract their greenhouse gas emissions.” The rise of such programs will help convince more farms to adopt regenerative practices in 2022.

Funding. As I described last week, the “most important development of 2021 was the consensus among investors that climate is the biggest threat and opportunity of our lifetimes.” Foods that reverse climate change is today like the Internet was in the late 90s, and the ongoing and impending flood of capital will spur the development of startups and growth companies that will transform the food system to reduce carbon emissions.

Plant-Based Meats and Plant-Based Eating. The rise of plant-based meat and dairy products will continue in 2022, helping more consumers reduce their carbon footprints.

The sector for plant-based foods will make up 7.7% of the global protein market by 2030, as its value rises to more than $162 billion, up from just $29.4 billion in 2020, says Bloomberg Intelligence’s report, Plant-Based Foods Poised for Explosive Growth. “Food-related consumer habits often come and go as fads, but plant-based alternatives are here to stay – and grow,” said Jennifer Bartashus, senior consumer staples analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “The expanding set of product options in the plant-based industry is contributing to plant alternatives becoming a long-term option for consumers around the world.”

Tools. In 2022 we’ll see more technology tools to help food companies and retailers leverage consumer demand for climate-friendly foods. This will include tools to cost-effectively measure carbon in soil, as well as the use of block chain tools to establish the (climate friendly) provenance of branded food products. And we’ll continue to see the rise of cost-effective tools to help companies measure and manage their carbon footprints.

Magic Wand for 2022? What would I like to change next year that I know won’t get changed? If I had a magic wand, I’d cause the federal government to level the playing fields in a way that enabled markets to fix our problems:

• Pollution Pricing. Carbon emissions from products today is the same as factories releasing chemicals in the river 100 years ago. By placing the price of pollution on the polluters, we would get real pricing on our products. If the pollution costs of industrial beef were included in consumer pricing, demand for industrial beef (and associated emissions) would plummet. I am in favor of a government-imposed revenue-neutral price on carbon emissions.

• End Subsidies for Beef and Dairy. While beef raised regeneratively is a good thing, the industrial beef that dominates in the U.S. is the worst climate actor, and the U.S. should end the massive subsidies it bestows upon the beef and dairy industries. By creating artificially low prices, these subsidies are creating incentives for more carbon emissions.

• End Ethanol Requirements for Gasoline. Most gasoline sold in the U.S. is 10% ethanol, which is generally made from corn, which is generally grown with fertilizer made from natural gas. Yes, we use fossil fuels to grow crops that we convert to a fossil fuel replacement. This is great for the corn farming and ethanol industries, and a waste of resources for everyone else. American consumers pay more to fuel their cars because of the ethanol requirement, and it reduces available farmland that could be used for agriculture or forestry, and it results in even more carbon emissions. It should end.

The federal government will eventually get around to solving these problems, but not until some future year where the good has already been done. As I’ve said before, the government is not going to save us.

The lack of government leadership need not diminish our spirits!

The business sector is doing the heavy lifting in the transition of the food system toward our future carbon net zero economy.

Momentum feels good, and we’ve got it going into the new year. Happy new year!

---

For Your Consideration:

What we learned in 2021 about food, tech, farmers, scale and love for nature

Checking in on the climate as you check out: A major supermarket chain in Denmark lets customers know the carbon footprint of their groceries

Direct checks could ignite cover crop surge; crop insurance may play role, too

Agribusiness: Growing Consumer Interest in Food Sourcing Generates Optimism Among Farmers

Farm Powered Strategic Alliance leads renewable energy movement across America

Can Crypto Scale Regenerative Agriculture?

End the Ethanol Rip-Off

The top 20 agrifoodtech funding deals of 2021

The True Cost of a Burger

Meat Eater Guide: Report

The Shocking Truth About America's Ethanol Law: It Doesn't Matter (For Now)

---

The views in this newsletter belong solely to Paul Lightfoot (and not to BrightFarms or other organizations). This newsletter accepts no advertising. Learn more about this newsletter at https://paullightfoot.substack.com/about.